July 4th Handicapping

So we're off. I'm declaring a start to the 2008 presidential primary season. To the right for the next few months you'll see updated handicapping of the primaries. Now here's the rules. No one gets in until they are declared and starting around football season, I'm going to start putting in odds for the general election.

I won't go above 500-1. Just because the house needs to protect itself and who's the say the entire Democratic field except for Gravel won't be rounded up as al-Qaeda operatives by the not so JUSTice Department.

There are interesting potential candidates who aren't in the race yet. Frequently bandied about are Fred "I'm a lazier version of Ronald Reagan" Thompson, Chuck Hagel, Newt Gingrich (?), Mike Bloomberg, Wesley Clark (mostly by me), Ralph Nader and Lou Dobbs (but only on CNN between 6 and 7). Probably a huge post in there somewhere. But for today, lets go with the Republicans who have declared.

THE REPUBLICANS

SAM BROWNBACK 250-1

I'll say this about Sammy, ain't too many Americans that are converting to Catholicism nowadays, most of us head in the other direction. Seems like a decent guy, went to Darfur, probably has a decent bbq out there in Kansas. The evangelicals look at him as the gold standard, doesn't believe in evolution, is largely the one issue candidate around abortion, which will mobilize those one issue voters. Sees Jesse Helms as a model, and was a sponsor of the Constitution Restoration Act (apparently I missed the memo that it was missing.) Never mind this guy is scary as hell, don't look now Sam but the pendulum is swinging.

Jim Gilmore 500-1
I know nothing about Jim Gilmore. He's from Virginia, Virginia is one of the five places I claim to be from, still don't know who he is. I guess he's the conservative's conservative. One that claims to speak for the soul of the party, one of the few with actual government chief executive experience. Raised slightly more money than I did last quarter. Seriously that's all I got

Rudy Giuliani 5-1
I dislike Rudy in a profound way. Like him on pro-choice and the fact that as a northeasterner he can actually has the speaking speed and diction to order breakfast in less than a half hour. The appeal, he seemed to be in control and keep his head about him on 9/11. Other than that, I don't know, sometimes he appears to be one of those old school Eastern establishment Republicans that I think some GOP'er's are yearning for. Helped to turn NYC around. I find him to be surrounded by a lot of corruption, and what is it that my mother said, divorced once shame on you, divorced twice shame on me? What does the guy do when his coinpurse is a lot bigger than NYC, more Bernard Kerik's? Was a member of the Iraq Study Group but had better things to do and didn't attend any meetings, similar to his Vietnam era military deferments. I think this guy burns out fast, especially when NYC firefighters come up and swiftboat him, he can't win without the firefighters supporting him and by the way, where did the Giuliani administration locate the emergency readiness center in New York? The World Trade Center, not sure if that makes much sense considering the 1993 attack. Oh yeah, and he's a Yankee's fan.

Duncan Hunter 250-1
Military hawk but actually a Vietnam veteran himself and his son served in Iraq so he had skin in the game. Another person claiming the Reagan mantle. Hugely popular in San Diego. Another candidate who wants to amend the Constitution for a pro-life amendment. Not very well known outside of California, solid conservative credentials that will leave him in a tight battle for 4th place along with Huckabee, Brownback and maybe even Thompson. May sneak into 3rd in Iowa, creating some momentum for the tax haters in New Hampster.

Mike Huckabee 150-1

He gets a couple extra points for being the Governor of Arkansas, is this the new steppingstone for the Oval Office. Mike also lost a lot of weight, which will play with the Republican Oprah set if such a thing exists. Gots that Arkansas gift of gab.One of the three candidates that said he didn't believe in evolution, which is somewhat disturbing. Another one of the middle tier cookie cutter republicans that wants to be a regular guy, not a rich John Edwards type. Will get asked more questions about weight loss than a Fair Tax and slowly fade away.

John McCain 4-1

The energetic, maverick, straight talking McCain of 2000 walks away with this primary election and makes himself a favorite for the general. His attraction, sometimes now physical to the President and the surge in Iraq has caused people to move away. To think how the Rovian tactics in South Carolina in 2000 may have swayed the history of the United States and the world, who knows what may have been. McCain is on the ropes right now but despite me having Romney ahead is still my favorite to win. He is electable if he can not seem so old. Granted his heroism in war and peace have exhausted him and will be interesting to see if he has the energy to make the run. Still a solid chance if he can stay on his feet and I believe becomes a prohibitive favorite in the face of a major terror attack on the United States.

RON PAUL 250-1
Ron Paul doesn't stand a chance, it doesn't keep him from being interesting. I have a friend who told me the other day he voted for him in 1988, the first person he ever voted for. I think he's interesting to the potheads on both sides and those people that really don't like to pay taxes. Also to those who want a protest vote against business as usual. I don't agree with him on a lot, but as Bob says those who don't want the government "in their head or in their bed" may lean towards him. His response to the leadup to the Iraq War is phenomenal and stood up to Giuliani's bullying during the debate when he refused to hold up the standard 9/11 answer which apparently is not "blowback". Doesn't believe in government, which would make for an interesting President. Hope he sticks around for a while just to keep things interesting. p.s . I found this sign much more telling than any other photo could be.

Tommy Thompson 250-1

So the question here is why? Why are you running? Who wastes money on you? And do you really think it's up to an employer to fire you if you are gay? What if you are a woman, Hispanic, Black? Has the firepower and slow talking midwest twang to do OK in Iowa, you know talk more about wasteful agricultural subsidies and how important they are and how people in cities are taking all the money for welfare. Boring, boring, boring. It's one thing to be in the race to make a point, or of course to win, a whole other thing if you're just a jackass.

Willard Romney 3-1
I'll say this first, I have absolutely no sexual attraction to men, but Mitt in person is a good looking guy. Perfectly put together, from central casting, no skeletons of womanizing, boozing or drugs, the best they can do and the Globe has tried hard is to talk about putting his dog in a container on a car roof. Out of the gate, he's the favorite. For all these nice things, Romney is the biggest fake in the world, the guy needs five focus groups and three white papers to decide what side of bed to get out of in the morning. He'll be charming talking about how he succeeded in that crazy Kennedyland state of Massachusetts and spout all these conservative Republican views that are....the exact opposite of what he said he believed in when he ran for Senate and Governor. I'm not sure that people are looking for a new CEO in chief and we've had our eight year run at the Harvard MBA option. Willard is eventually going to forget what he really believes in. Also about doubling the size of Gitmo, is it too small? Do we need more room? Are there terrorists that we are just letting run around because there's no place to put them? Or is this just one of them "figgers of speech". Should be interesting for Mitt to start acting all folksy, he makes George Bush, Senior look like Roy Clark on Hee Haw.

Tom Tancredo 350-1
Tancredo wants to bring America back to a better time before all this illegal immigration, ironically of course he lives in former Mexico. He is a one issue candidate, immigration reform and control in contrast to other "pro-life" one issue candidacies. Tom has the additional charm of also being one of the big three that doesn't believe in evolution. Again, I don't think Tom has any thought that he'll really be elected, but he's there to press his issue. I think he has been successful in stifling in type of reform which is now given the bumper sticker image of "amnesty" and surrender to special interests, whether they be corporate interests or that of identity and ethnic politics, could have a minor populist surge in the midwest and Carolinas if he stays around that long. Anywhere where immigrants are "stealing" those very popular picking and slaughterhouse jobs that Americans are knocking the doors down to get.

So that's what I have for the GOP out of the gate, next week on with the Dems.....